Stochastic Simulation and Application of Monthly Rainfall and Evaporation
Abstract
Statistic was done for the precipitation and evaporation monitoring
data of Yuncheng from 1971 to 2007. The first-order seasonal
autoregressive models were set up, considering separately for the normal
and skewed distribution of rainfall and evaporation. Long series of
monthly precipitation and evaporation sequences were generated. Compared
the average, standard deviation and other parameters of simulation
sequences with measured sequence, the results of skewed simulation had
better agreement with the measured one. Then it proved that skewness
model maintains the main statistical characteristics of the measured
sequence. 20 groups of equal length with the measured sequence of
precipitation and evaporation sequence could be generated
through the skewness model. The sequence of irrigation water of the
winter wheat multiple corns planting type had been calculated, using the
“α” value
method. And comparative analysis with the
measured result was performed. The simulation computed
result was found in good coincidence with the measure computed
result.
Origin | Files produced by the author(s) |
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