%0 Conference Proceedings %T Software Innovation Dynamics in CMSs and Its Impact on Enterprise Information Systems Development %+ AGH University of Science and Technology [Krakow, PL] (AGH UST) %+ International Centre for Decision Science and Forecasting, Progress & Business Foundation %A Skulimowski, Andrzej %A Badecka, Inez %Z Part 7: EIS-Practices %< avec comité de lecture %( Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing %B 10th International Conference on Research and Practical Issues of Enterprise Information Systems (CONFENIS) %C Vienna, Austria %Y A Min Tjoa %Y Li Da Xu %Y Maria Raffai %Y Niina Maarit Novak %I Springer International Publishing %3 Research and Practical Issues of Enterprise Information Systems %V LNBIP-268 %P 309-324 %8 2016-12-13 %D 2016 %R 10.1007/978-3-319-49944-4_23 %K Software evolution %K ICT foresight %K ERP-CMS %K Vector autoregression %K EIS scenarios %K Open-source software %Z Computer Science [cs] %Z Humanities and Social Sciences/Library and information sciencesConference papers %X This paper reports the results of a prospective study on information system development trends. It is based on the observation that SMEs seek opportunities to endow their CMS-based IS with CRM, e-commerce and ERP/ERM functionalities. Using publicly-available release data, we investigated the dynamics of subsequent versions and new functionalities of the most popular open-source CMSs - Drupal, Joomla!, and WordPress. Special attention was paid to software innovations that make possible the use of CMS-based applications for typical EIS purposes. The software technology race was modelled by a system of quasi-linear stochastic equations with state variables describing the upgrade generation time. Two such models have been built and compared for the above CMSs. Trend extrapolation with vector autoregression allowed us to predict ERP-related functionality development prospects until 2025. We maintain that the deployment of CMS-based ERP/ERM may have a relevant impact on business models and strategic ICT alignment in SMEs. %G English %Z TC 8 %Z WG 8.9 %2 https://inria.hal.science/hal-01630527/document %2 https://inria.hal.science/hal-01630527/file/432749_1_En_23_Chapter.pdf %L hal-01630527 %U https://inria.hal.science/hal-01630527 %~ SHS %~ IFIP %~ IFIP-AICT %~ IFIP-TC %~ IFIP-LNBIP %~ IFIP-WG %~ IFIP-TC8 %~ IFIP-WG8-9 %~ IFIP-CONFENIS %~ IFIP-LNBIP-268